nostalgebraist asked: If it strikes your fancy, can I have a Fermi estimate on the number of existing D&D-for-beginners instructors named Tim? I've now met two such beings, and it got me idly curious.
As usual, I’ll limit myself to the US, to keep things simple. But Tim/Timothy is especially an American name anyway, and D&D is likely mostly an Anglophone game, so this assumption is fine.
As you can see in the above chart, there have been over a million Timothys in the US (and 80,000 Tims). Most of those Timothys are from within the last 70 years, so we can assume that most of them are still alive. That gives us a million Tims, more or less. About one in 300 Americans.
I couldn’t find specific numbers on the number of D&D tutors out there, but to set an upper bound, I looked up the number of Fortnite tutors currently working. According to Newsweek this month, “Hundreds of reviews on freelance work websites, including Gamer Sensei, reveal parents are frequently purchasing advanced Fortnite
players to conduct video streaming services with their children as part
of the lessons. Gamer Sensei reported hiring out more than 1,400 Fortnite tutors since early March alone.” So at least some thousands, maybe over 10,000, especially if not all such tutors hire themselves out through websites.
There are surely way more Fortnite players than D&D players, so whatever the number is for D&D, it’s lower. (Though if D&D players are more likely to be adults with disposable incomes, that may reduce the disparity somewhat.) Let’s say there are a thousand D&D tutors.
If so, then there are about three
D&D
instructors named Tim. But realistically, the vast majority of them will be men, which might double the number of Tims. On the other hand, most Timothys are older now, while most D&D instructors are likely younger, which points in the opposite direction. Regardless, you’ve met a lot of them.
In the 14th century, the area currently known as Bangladesh was “a country abounding in rice”, while in Europe people were consuming fewer than 2000 calories a day. Six centuries later, Bangladesh is one of the poorest countries in the world and it’s people undernourished, while European wages have increased 10-fold or more. This reversal of fortune can be credited to a set of institutions known as capitalism, which were adopted in Europe and not Bangladesh (which instead saw the entrenchment of powerful landlords).
Likewise, in 1700 Mexico’s per-capita income was about that of the British colonies’, and in 1800 Cuba and Haiti had higher per-capita incomes than the US. Now, Mexico and Haiti have per-capita incomes less than a third of the US. Once again, this can be shown to be the result of different institutional adoption.
However, these differences aren’t well addressed by the standard Neoclassical/Walrasian economic paradigm, which assumes that institutions are “free”. And it makes a variety of other simplifying assumptions:
Individuals make choices based on far-sighted, rational calculations
Individuals have self-regarding, exogenous preferences
Social interactions take the form of contractual exchanges
Positive feedback loops (“generalized increasing returns”) can be ignored
However, the real world differs from these assumptions in many ways:
Most social interactions are non-contractual, and most contracting is incomplete - it’s unenforceable to make a worker work hard, for instance.
People do not generally engage in forward-looking optimizing processes, instead draw on a limited repertoire of behaviors.
While people are self-interested, they also often care about other people, and are willing to reduce their own benefit to help others or to punish someone who has harmed others.
People are heterogeneous, some more self-interested, some less self-interested
People have stable irrationalities - intransitivity, loss aversion, etc.
Behaviors can be transmitted by people copying successful ones, or by other means - forward-looking analyses can be misleading
Generalized increasing returns mean that small effects or random events can have durable consequences over long timeframes.
Economics must draw upon insights from all behavioral sciences, including ecology and biology. Deriving results from behavioral axioms (the Neoclassical/Walrasian paradigm) will not suffice. And account must be taken of the specific institutions and other surrounding empirical facets of a given economic interaction, and not merely assume that they can all be treated similarly.
This book starts by introducing a variety of models that try to investigate non contractual interactions and generalized increasing returns. It then moves on to the institutions of capitalism, and ends with the process of cultural and institutional change.
-
Chapter one is a brief introduction to game theory. This post is a commitment to post my notes from it by…let’s say Sunday.
For some reason, I think nostalgebraist might appreciate (the existence of) this song, “Chupacabras” by Phideaux. (For some reason this video has glued two separate songs together, so “Chupacabras” doesn’t begin until 02:06. IMO the actual song is much better than the 2-minute intro.)
Lyrics:
Part (a): Supper’s Calling
I wonder what’s for dinner tonight If everything works out all right I’ll be feasting So, let’s see what’s for dinner tonight A treat below that beats with life It’s calling, beating, breathing, bleeding
I sense your presence, smell you near – sneaking, hiding I hear your heart and feel your fear – flowing, moving Behold it soon will all be clear My eyes, shining: hypnotizing
Part (b): The Shepherdess
You’ve lost control You’ve lost your way home Out in the cold You’ve lost your way home
You’ve lost your way home You’ve lost your way home, out in the cold…
I will live again Up from the air of my succulent lair I will rise anew Into the wind I will move my wings I will feed again Drain to the depths with my clean teeth and breath
I am beauty I am beauty
Once for awhile there was light beside the dark Once long ago there was fire because of spark Secrets have faded, shadows have grown We are just wanderers whose path is unknown Unknown…
I am free at last Take in a breath, there’s no looking back I go circling Spying from high, I watch my prize I will wipe the sleep from red glowing eyes and prepare to arrive
This is beauty (I couldn’t ask for anything more)
Part (d): Chupacabras Stomp
All that we have ever known Is seeking love and wanting home All that we have ever known Is seeking love and wanting home Creator I bring the gift of everlasting dream Creator I bring the gift of life between the seams I bring the gift…
Part (e): Get My Goat
Instrumental
Part (f): Study and Review
Secrets have faded, shadows have grown We are just wanderers whose path is unknown The path is unknown…
Part (g): The Gift
I will live again Deliver myself from waiting in stealth I will rise again Meet you alive on the other side
I am freedom I am freedom, you couldn’t ask for anything more You couldn’t ask for anything more Creator… All that we have ever known Is seeking love and wanting home …unknown I am freedom I will free them