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gaddis

more-whales:

nostalgebraist:

Franzen called him “Mr. Difficult,” the ultimate pretentious high-artist who followed only his own standards of perfection and didn’t care if readers enjoyed or even understood his work.  This is hard to square with Gaddis’ actual writing which is relatively comprehensible and often beautiful.

Two and a half years ago, I bought a copy of Gaddis’ book The Recognitions on a whim after Franzen made me curious about it.  I got about a third of the way through it before stopping — not because it was too difficult, but because it was long and I needed a change of pace, and I just never quite got back into it.  I’m staying home sick today and I just re-read the first chapter of The Recognitions, which is a sad, mordantly funny (I actually laughed out loud a number of times), beautifully written family drama about a minister’s growing fascination with the pagan roots of Christianity, the ire this draws from his family and community, and his son growing up confused and caught in the crossfire.  If this chapter had been published as a stand-alone novella, it would probably be considered a classic, and no one would complain about Gaddis being too difficult.

Instead it is stuck inside of a giant book famous for being unread, for being some sort of hipster cred object or masterpiece of pretentious wankery, for being “the most difficult book [Jonathan Franzen] ever voluntarily read.”  Why beat up on this skilled, passionate and relatively obscure author when every year thousands of bemused high school students are assigned baffling streams of consciousness by Joyce and Faulker and told to eat them like vegetables?  I don’t know whether I’ll ever finish The Recognitions (it is very long), but shame on you, Franzen.

I haven’t read The Recognitions, but this basically describes my experience reading J R, which is also moving, biting satire, laugh-out-loud funny, and beautifully written. I guess it’s shorter but more committed to the “dialogue only” style, which is what people find challenging? Like all these reviews talk about how there’s “little indication of which character is speaking.” But to me it seemed like giving all the characters strong distinct voices and leaving me to make those voice associations as they’re introduced made for more readable dialogue and left me more attuned to what was going on, as compared with a having the narrator tag every line of conversation. Maybe I had to be a little more active as a reader but it seemed mostly automatic. (I ended up dropping it about halfway through, because it’s long and I wanted a change of pace.)

Anyway Franzen’s a funny guy. Maybe you’ve seen it but this old review has been making the rounds:

Colson Whitehead’s first novel, ”The Intuitionist,” was a lively comic fantasy about a New York City elevator inspector named Lila Mae Watson. The book established Whitehead’s intelligence and originality as a novelist, but I wasn’t too excited by the world of elevator inspection, and I was frankly irritated by the author’s choice of Lila Mae as the protagonist. Although it’s technically impressive and theoretically laudable when a male novelist succeeds in inhabiting a female persona, something about the actual practice makes me uneasy. Is the heroine doing double duty as the novelist’s fantasy sex object? Is the writer trying to colonize fictional territory that rightfully belongs to women? Or does the young literato, lacking the perks of power and feeling generally smallened by the culture, perhaps believe himself to be, at some deep level, not male at all? I confess to being unappetized by all three possibilities; and so, fairly or not, I found myself wishing that Whitehead had written about a man.

But all is forgiven now. Whitehead’s new novel, ”John Henry Days,” not only features a male protagonist, a young freelance journalist named J. Sutter, but cannily engages the interior crisis of manhood in present-day America.

It’s nice to hear good things about JR.  I think if anything that’s the one that you can most easily raise the “spurious difficulty” charge against, because writing solely in unattributed dialogue looks very much like a gimmick meant to make things hard on the reader, even if (as you say) it ends up being less troublesome than one might think.  (ETA: The Recognitions is mostly narration as opposed to than dialogue, although the dialogue does the “dashes instead of quotes” thing, which some reviewers complained about.)

Yeah, I had seen that Franzen quote.  I almost feel like I’m just jumping on a bandwagon by hating on Franzen, because he seems to get a startling amount of hate on the internet.  But there really is something very annoying about him.

I guess it’s that he seems like a distillation of the archetype of the “guy who expects you to listen to his opinion just because he showed up”?  Like, he clearly considers himself an important literary figure, but why did he take that vocation?  What in literature is he passionate about?  He’s just sort of … there, with this null, neutral perspective that doesn’t seem to reflect any great interest in what he’s talking about.

E.g. in the Gaddis essay he complains that Gaddis doesn’t do enough to appeal to him, while at the same time saying he doesn’t actually enjoy the genre (“systems fiction”) he places Gaddis in.  Well, there’s the problem right there!  But then what is he doing talking about it in the first place?  If you don’t like this kind of music, dude, why are you at this show?  Or that quote about Whitehead is so bizarre – why would a man write a female protagonist?  Well, why write about anyone?  Isn’t it interesting to step into the perspectives of people different from yourself?  Isn’t that one of the great things about fiction?  You do like fiction, don’t you, Jonathan?  … Hello?  Hello?

(via more-whales)

raginrayguns:

nostalgebraist:

raginrayguns:

fnord888:

nostalgebraist:

In a curve-fitting method (such as polynomial regression), I may want to penalize very “wiggly” curves, because I know that noise tends to make small samples look wigglier than they are.  (Given a few noisy points from a straight line, I want my method to find the line and ignore the noise, not over-fit the noise with wiggles.)  However, I do not believe that “wiggly” curves are a priori unlikely!

If I may jump in here…

You don’t believe that “wiggly” curves in general are a priori unlikely (well, depending on your priors :P), but any particular “wiggly” curve has a lower probability than a particular linear curve. This is true for more or less the same reason that “wiggly” curves are prone to overfitting in the first place: because there are more parameters, each of which is individually uncertain.

okay imma try and develop this more when I get home, but that’s actually not the important thing either!

Point estimates of curves can be smooth even if the true curve is known not to be. I mean… if non-wiggly curves have lower probability or even no probability, then still the point estimate, which is an average over all possible curves, might not have wiggles.

(like how if a number is either 0 or 10 the best guess can be 5, even though there’s no chance of it being exactly right)

I think I can illustrate this with wavelet regression, i’ll maybe get around to it

raginrayguns: that’s true if we take the posterior mean, but I was figuring we were taking the posterior mode (“maximum a posteriori estimation”), since that’s how you can get the same point estimate out of ridge regression and Bayes with a Gaussian prior (see here).  Unless I’m misunderstanding your point.

*snop*

(Would anyone just come along and say “hey guys, my a priori prejudices about the parameters in this statistical model follow a normal distribution” if they weren’t doing it to justify the already existing practice of ridge regression?  Do you really believe in those Gaussians before any data comes in, or are they just a means to an end?  Would you accept bets on the basis of them?)

MAP estimates have no justification, as far as I know. Bayesians do use them sometimes… I’d guess? But I’ve also seen the phrase “MAP is crap” in the literature. (in the book Bayesian Methods in Structural Bioinformatics). My Bayes teachers bring up MAP but I’ve never been advised to use it in any particular case, while I have been advised not to use it.

So… I don’t think MAP estimates are the things to talk about when we’re talking about the point estimates that Bayesian methods produce. Certainly not if we’re trying to justify Bayesian methods, because as I said, MAP estimates have no justification even to a Bayesian.

The posterior mean on the other hand has a very natural justification: it’s the point estimate that minimizes the expected squared error. (hereafter MSE, mean squared error.) So it’s the more natural bayesian analogue of the frequentist idea of regularization, justified through the bias-variance decomposition of MSE.

The ridge regression estimate, besides being the MAP estimate, is also the posterior mean with a normal prior. This is how I’d explain its low MSE.

Because, do I believe that normal prior? Well, not really, not precisely, quantitatively. But think of the prior that corresponds to unpenalized regression, the uniform prior. Do I believe that each regression coefficient has the same probability of being in (1, 2) as in (1000001, 1000002)? Not usually, and even when the coefficient can be that high, there’s some value that’s just too astronomically high to be plausible. That’s what the normal prior gets right.

The normal shape is for conjugacy, for computation. Actually, I can quote Marina Vanucci to demonstrate that Real Bayesians think this way. I wrote down this quote during a lecture on variable selection in linear regression: “The construction is the conjugate case because that’s to make our lives easier when it comes to implementing the MCMC.” But there’s a parameter you can set in the conjugate prior to make it uniform, and we don’t, because of our knowledge that some proposed coefficients are just too big.

Oh, sorry, I missed that posterior mean would give you back the same thing as posterior mode here!  (I guess which point estimate to report depends on which loss function you care about, but MSE is probably much more practically relevant than the kind of loss function that would make the mode best, I think?)

I take your point about the Gaussian being more intuitive than the uniform here.  But what about the task of choosing between different regularizers?  Ridge regression corresponds to Gaussian priors, while Lasso regression corresponds to Laplace distribution priors.  (Well, OK, it only does if you use MSE, and if you use median or mean you get a “Bayesian Lasso” that gives results somewhere between ridge and Lasso.)  Note that the Laplace distribution also has the property you mention, of falling off as the weights get bigger.

It seems to me like one can look at constructing these methods in two different ways: an “engineering” way, where you think about giving the method some performance properties you want, and a “belief introspection” way, where you figure out what you really think about the weights a priori, and then Bayes update from there.

In this case – and perhaps in general with this sort of thing – the “engineering” way seems much more intuitive to me.  I can understand why someone might want to use Lasso regression because of its properties as a method (e.g. it tends to drive some weights to zero, which makes it easier to interpret).  I have a much harder time imagining someone just deciding “ah, my state of ignorance about these weights is represented by a Laplace distribution,” unless they had really done the engineering thought process first, and were then translating it into Bayesian terms.

I see this all as relevant to the broader questions about “Bayesianism” as a philosophy because when people talk about Bayesianism they always talk about people having these beliefs represented as probabilities.  But when we talk about Bayesian methods like this, it’s really very difficult to think about things that way.  (“Is your prior for the weights Gaussian or Laplace?” Wait, is that the sort of thing I’m supposed to have an opinion about?)  And it seems like what one ends up doing is running through the engineering analysis, and then going back and translating it into the prior you “must have had” to license applying the method you want to use.  But throw out the last step, and you’re just a frequentist.  (Except you get a whole distribution out instead of a point estimate which I guess is nice)

(via raginrayguns)

dannythestreet:

nostalgebraist:

slatestarscratchpad:

nostalgebraist:

again, you’d think a group interested in the science of cognitive biases would talk more about the cognitive biases involved in, say, sexism, or racism, or homophobia, or (etc), what with those things being thoroughly documented in the literature…

I remember there being a big (and bizarre) argument about this way back on Overcoming Bias ca. 2008

I think the line being pushed at the time was “we only talk about biases in the most general sense and leave specific applications up to you.”  This may have been an attempt to make the site more apolitical than social science academia, at the cost of ignoring some of its work?  This idea may have fallen out of favor since then, I dunno.

(As I’ve mentioned before I think a lot of biases only go away if you think about them in the context of “specific applications,” so I think “leaving the applications up to you” kills a lot of the point of talking about bias.)

We’ve tried talking about racism and sexism a bunch of times. Just to start with, and limiting myself to top-level posts:

http://lesswrong.com/lw/533/manufacturing_prejudice/

http://lesswrong.com/lw/53/the_implicit_association_test/

http://lesswrong.com/lw/5d/fight_biases_or_route_around_them/

http://lesswrong.com/lw/4w/bogus_pipeline_bona_fide_pipeline/

http://lesswrong.com/lw/59i/offense_versus_harm_minimization/

http://lesswrong.com/lw/134/sayeth_the_girl/

http://lesswrong.com/lw/fmw/lw_women_entries_creepiness/

http://lesswrong.com/lw/efs/call_for_anonymous_narratives_by_lw_women_and/

http://lesswrong.com/lw/8e2/transhumanism_and_gender_relations/

http://lesswrong.com/lw/13j/of_exclusionary_speech_and_gender_politics/

http://lesswrong.com/lw/374/gender_identity_and_rationality/

Some points:

1. That is about ten times more top-level posts than have ever been posted about neoreaction.

2. So anyone who says there’s an “imbalance” between discussion of racism/sexism and some opposing view doesn’t want discussion split 50:50. They don’t even want it split 10:1. They want all discussion agreeing with them and no one else allowed to talk. Anything else is an “imbalance”. I don’t think this is dishonest. They’re just used to spaces where it works that way, and any other way seems weird and off-kilter and unfair.

3. There’s only so much you can say about something everyone else is already talking about everywhere.

4. Anyone continues to be able to post anything they want on Less Wrong. The “balance” of posts there reflects solely who chooses to write something up and press that “post” button. Instead of complaining how no one ever writes about your favorite bias on Less Wrong, why not write about your favorite bias for Less Wrong?

You’ve cast a wider net here than the one that I am casting or that (I think) twocubes is casting.  These all fall into the category of “about race and gender,” but not all into the category of “about racism and sexism” — e.g. there’s no way to read “Transhumanism and Gender Relations” as saying anything about present-day sexism.

Indeed, it’s exactly as (un)related to present-day sexism as the original EY post about catgirls; I’m not sure what makes “Transhumanism and Gender Relations” more worthy of inclusion than the catgirls post, except the fact that its futurist projection is more palatable to the average feminist than EY’s.  But I’m not asking for posts that feminists would like, or even posts by feminists — I’m asking for analyses of (in this case) sexism from a heuristics and biases perspective.

Several of these posts (four by my count) seem to be part of community-internal discussions of sexism within the LW community — one discussion from 2009 (you included EY’s and Alicorn’s posts from a larger series of posts) about possible sexism in LW as an online space, and a later conversation from 2012 about creepy male behaviors in LW meetups (you chose two posts resulting from this discussion).  I think it is good that this happens, but it’s not an “LW analysis of sexism,” it’s “analysis of sexism in LW.”  No turning the rationalist telescope out on the wider world here.

Then there are a bunch of posts by you.  It feels weird to raise that as an objection — it sounds like I’m just making up weird objections at this point.  However, I already like your writing, much more than I like “LW culture” in general; for instance, I read your blog regularly, but not the main site.  So these posts don’t convince me that any thinking of this sort is going on within LW except for the kind that is going on at SSC, and at the moment seems to have isolated itself to SSC.  Moreover, even these posts aren’t especially good examples of what I’m looking for: the IAT post for instance uses the IAT’s role in prejudice research only as a stepping stone to more “general rationality” applications when it’s precisely discussion of prejudice as prejudice that I think is important for the sake of reducing bias.

(There are two entries on the list I haven’t talked about.  One, “Manufacturing Prejudice,” is in fact about analyzing prejudice, and isn’t by you, but it is also not very interesting; modulo language choices, it’s the kind of post I would expect to see on tumblr and scroll by quickly because I already know and agree with the kind of thing it’s trying to say.  If this is what LW has to offer on these subjects, I’ll just stay on tumblr.  The other, “Gender Identity and Rationality,” is at least about analyzing gender from a uniquely “LW” perspective, so I’d say it’s the closest thing to a “hit” this list has by my criteria.)

That was a lot of words, but what it all comes down to is that I’m looking for serious investigation into sexism and racism, preferably with reference to the academic literature, and treated as topics of general interest (for people interested in understanding society) rather than things to be used as stepping stones to “general rationality” insights or as things to be reluctantly addressed when they arise as community problems and then ignored later.  If that’s a tall order, so be it.  It’s not the same as just “talking about racism and sexism,” though.

(The “equal time” thing is a bit complicated, but much of my objection follows from the above — equal time between “gender/race” and “neoreaction” is not a fair standard because “gender/race” as it’s defined above is a gigantic net that appears to exclude stuff like Eliezer’s catgirls post only because they are not leftist enough.  It’s as though I had said there weren’t enough posts about whether learning to code was a good idea and you had linked me to every post that talked about programming, or every such post that you perceived as being sufficiently “on my side.”  ”Post fits my specific, perhaps restrictive interest criteria” != “post is far enough to my side of some ideological spectrum to balance out some other post I don’t like in some quota agreement.”  There may be plenty of posts on my side yet few I find interesting to read.)

Topics aside, “Neoreaction” vs “The left” is still an absurd framing especially when Scott is suggesting that a 50:50 split would be reasonable. Imagine if the boot was on the other foot, and LessWrong had a significant Posadist minority (not unreasonable on a site devoted to existential risk and superhuman intelligence, and they are much less pro-apocalypse than Nick Land&co, at least qualitatively if not quantitatively) with many of the liberals on the site taking Posadist thought quite seriously and putting some effort into engaging with them. 

Imagine this parallel universe Less Wrong has it’s own Scott Alexander, who has written an extremely long and well researched anti-Posadist FAQ, and is often heard to remark that the superficial details of Posadism - the guff about dolphins and deformed workers states and so on - are mostly just a sort of labyrinth for deterring and/or detaining the stupid, like the “Adso admires a door” chapter from The Name of The Rose, and that the meta-level ideas, regarding class and ideology and the possibility of acausal communication with inhuman intelligences, was the really interesting bit.

And imagine this alternate universe Scott responding to a commentator worried about the sites left wing bias by listing of all the topics on Less Wrong devoted to taxes and bureaucracy and the definition of marriage, pointing out that these far outnumber the topics devoted to the life and thought of Juan Posadas, whose supporters are only about as numerous on the site as conservatives or libertarians. 

It’s almost as if, our goateed mirror universe Scott scoffs, they don’t want a 50:50 split between discussion of the size of government and some opposing view, they want all discussion agreeing with them and regard any mention of the positive benefits of an all consuming nuclear fire, a final and deadly confrontation between the proletariat and the bourgeoisie in which greater than half of mankind would perish, and a new and more noble humanity emerge from the ashes, forged in atomic fire, united by common purpose, and having obtained through unimaginable suffering a higher degree of consciousness, the illusions common to all previous ages of man shattered irrevocably by the intimate knowledge of the terrible power within their control, as being off-kilter and unreasonable.

I mean, it’s not really necessary to go that far, just imagine Crooked Timber tried to claim they were a politically unbiased site because they have about as many conservative commentators as they do communist ones. Nobody would take that seriously, would they? We’d agree that the mere fact they framed it that way indicated how far to the left they were.

This is perfect.  (And thanks for making me aware of the Posadists!)

(via clawsofpropinquity)

hot-queer-rationalist-deactivat asked: Hey, could you remind me of what your objections to Bayesianism were, again? Like, bullet-point list style of thing rather than long post.

hot-gay-rationalist:

nostalgebraist:

1.  Core objection: People do not seem to “have” prior probabilities, even approximately.  Real-world levels of belief in propositions aren’t well represented by numbers obeying the probability axioms.  Being a Bayesian in the real world means trying to do something your mind is not well-suited for.  Whether or not this approximation produces good reasoning is a thing that needs to be investigated, and my hunch is that often it doesn’t (see here).

1b.  Even if we could have prior probabilities, I’m not sure this would be the right thing to do.

2.  Shakier and less important objection: Dutch Book arguments don’t convince me that conditionalization (Bayesian updating) is right.  Other arguments (e.g. Jaynes’ version of Cox’s theorem) may do the job but I am confused about why the Dutch Book is so famous if there are better arguments out there.

3.  Rhetorical objection: it isn’t a part of “Bayesianism” per se, but something that often comes along for the ride is a focus on updating as the core of “rational thought,” with “prior construction” as this magical thing that happens once at the start and is not often thought about.  This is misleading since real thinking (e.g. in the history of science) is usually all about coming up with new ideas, that is (in Bayesian terms) expanding your prior to things that were not in its support to begin with (hence this can’t be framed as an update because you didn’t have a prior probability for the idea before you came up with it).  To me a theory of “rational thought” has to involve ideas about how to efficiently search through the space of possible explanations and “Bayesianism = rationality” ignores this issue.

1. *nods* This is true, and I agree with the linked post. And I think I have never personally uttered the phrase “I have updated in the direction of [your position],” but I have thought that I ought to do stuff along these lines. My usual (internal) response to these situations is “try to remember a list of the actual evidence instead of some number” and it works to varying but on average fairly good levels of success.

1b. Could you elaborate?

2. Yeah, totes agree here, I is confuse.

3. I agree that this is a problem that is often neglected/glossed over, but I disagree that it is necessarily equivalent to expanding your prior’s support to things that hadn’t previously been in it (though intuitively it seems like that is indeed a way of putting it). I wrote a thing that’s tangential to this and I think closer to what I’d call “normatively correct” in which logical omniscience isn’t assumed (it’s consistent with Jaynes’ proof, in any case).

In such a case, computations (like proving a theorem and thus finding out that e.g. ‘A → B’) can and should be used as evidence, and so the proposition “I gave hypothesis H2 some thought.” could have a meaning and a meaningful impact on your knowledge. So instead of changing the support of your priors, you leave a sentence for “all hypotheses I haven’t thought of” and thinking about some new hypothesis can meaningfully drastically shift your probabilities.

Plus I’m pretty sure this is quite similar to what happens in real life. For example, most physicists know that Quantum Theory is incomplete and incorrect, and if they were to somehow meaningfully ascribe probabilities to their beliefs, P(“Some hypothesis I haven’t thought of”|X) would be a pretty large number. So there is some sense, I think, in reasoning about hypotheses you don’t know yet.

(Incidentally, ever since I wrote that post I’ve had a tab with this paper open waiting for me to read it. Sssiiigghhhh.)

——-

So I think we pretty much agree about almost everything here? Although it seems you don’t think that, even if it were possible, we ought to emulate Bayesian reasoning, and I don’t know why that’d be because I find this intuitively very appealing.

And elaborating on this emulation: while I agree that it’s not actually possible to be even reasonably close to a perfect Bayesian agent most of the time, there are still some insights that I think are useful and that come from it (though not necessarily exclusively from it), which I’ve listed here (this is a somewhat old post, I am going to rewrite it eventually). And by the way, those insights are not shared by a very large part of the people I’ve met, and even an idea as simple as that of quantitative reasoning is a fairly rare phenomenon.

Okay, for now I’m just going to try to address 1b, which I admit was totally mysterious as I stated it.

As usual, I’m taking cues from Cosma Shalizi, specifically the blog post “Bayes < Darwin-Wallace.”

So, since we’re considering Bayes as a normative ideal, let’s imagine we’re creatures that could assign “plausibilities” (which would then, by some standard argument, have to be probabilities) to hypotheses, without approximation.  We could be Jayesbots.  But we could also do other things.  What should we do?

Well, one simple alternative is the following: you start with a hypothesis space H, but no plausibilities.  You wait for data to come in.  Then, at any time, you simply “believe in” whichever hypothesis has the maximum likelihood of producing the data you saw.

This has a certain philosophical appeal: it’s just going with the “best” hypothesis in a certain sense.  It also has a certain mathematical appeal: as Shalizi says, it can be seen as choosing the “point of closest approach” to the data in H, the closest H gets to touching/including what you saw.

The downside of doing this is that it’s vulnerable to sampling fluctuations.  Your chosen hypothesis will bounce around a lot as data comes in and you keep choosing slightly odd hypotheses that over-fit the noise in the data.  (Think about trying to determine the probability of H and T with a coin — maximum likelihood will just select the rates you’ve seen in the sample, which may not settle down to the true values until you have a lot of flips.)  This is a practical, not a philosophical downside.

Now Bayes is nicer than this, practically.  Your “belief” if you use Bayes — in the sense of “the thing you’d use to make expected utility calculations and thus decisions” — is a sort of weighted average over every point in H.  You believe a little bit in every point in H, just in some more than others.  Practically speaking, this is nice because it means you’ll over-fit less.

I keep saying the words “philosophical” and “practical.”  What I’m getting at here is that both Bayes and maximum likelihood have strong intuitions behind them that say “this is just the right thing to do,” which is what I mean by “philosophical” reasons for using them.  (In the case of objective Bayes, there are even more such intuitions.)  But if you get to pick which method you use — you could be a Jaynesbot, but you could also be something else — then you can also ask “which of these behaves better in practice”?  This is what I’m concerned about here.

A certain sort of person might say “maximum likelihood just feels so right to me that I don’t care that it over-fits” — this person would have philosophical reasons that override all practical concerns.  Likewise, one could feel the same about Bayes.  I can’t argue with the personal choices of either of these people.  But suppose that the philosophical intuitions are less than infinitely compelling, and we’re open to practical considerations, too.

Well, in this case, Bayes did better than maximum likelihood.  The way in which it did better can be interpreted in terms of the “bias/variance tradeoff” — it decreased variance by adding bias.  (Your results are less variable across different realizations of the process you’re looking at — less variance — but at the cost of everything being biased in the direction of looking like your prior.)  But this trade-off is a familiar issue in statistics, and people have ideas about how to do it “right” — to find the sweet spot between bias and variance.  And it’s not clear that Bayes, even objective Bayes, gets to the sweet spot.  It is essentially one approach among many to the balance of bias and variance.  (Maximum likelihood is an extreme case: all variance, no bias.)

Can it be shown that Bayes somehow gets the trade-off uniquely right?  I don’t know this stuff well enough to know.  Shalizi seems skeptical, though his reasoning is not spelled out very explicitly.  In any case, these are the sort of concerns behind point 1b.  If we see Bayes as a method for fitting data, then it must be compared to other possible methods that may not have anything like a prior, and it’s not clear that it’s the best one in terms of practical performance.

(Again, if one finds philosophical arguments for Bayes infinitely compelling, then this is all irrelevant.  I don’t — in particular, the idea that one should have a prior before one has seen any data seems if anything a bit counter-intuitive to me.  Objective Bayesianism, where one picks the prior uniquely by acting maximally ignorant of everything but what one knows, seems a bit more appealing, but it also seems like a way of minimizing the weirdness of having a prior before you see any data, when you could also just not have one at all.  It might turn out to be the case that objective Bayesianism makes for methods with a nice bias/variance tradeoff, but that’s in the realm of practicality.  In the realm of philosophy/intuition, objective Bayes feels to me like a weird half-measure — accept the weirdness of having a prior before you see any data, but then try to minimize that weirdness, rather than rejecting such a prior outright.)

kadathinthecoldwaste:

nostalgebraist:

I have other things to do and shouldn’t waste time preaching to the choir about Aaron Diaz being wrong.  But his views on pinups and objectification seem wrong to me.

Okay, just the compressed version: I don’t think objectification can, or even should, be completely removed from sexuality.  Sometimes a nice ass is just a nice ass — which is to say, a geometric form, a literal object, whose shape appeals to you.  What is important is not to allow the enjoyment of people’s forms to become mutually exclusive with enjoyment of people as human beings.  But “enjoyment of people as human beings” is a thing that actually involves knowing people and cannot be conveyed through a picture alone.  Using the right poses or camera angles or whatever cannot not make a picture of a sexy person “less objectifying” and therefore “better.”  Ultimately, unless you know the person, you are still just looking at their body and thinking it’s a nicely shaped body.

The idea that certain camera angles or poses or the like are “more dehumanizing” than others is in fact kind of disturbing to me, as it suggests that the implied audience is unable to see a pictured person as a person unless those parameters are set just right.  And if that’s true then that is the sort of thing that needs to be fixed.  A picture is a picture is a picture.  Ogling someone in a picture does not become less about their physical form because they are in a different pose or something.  It’s still a picture, and it’s still ogling.

Disturbing or not, I think Diaz is right on this count. It seems pretty self-evident to me that it’s easier to recognize a full image of a human as a person than to recognize an image of a butt as such. We recognize that the butt belongs to a person, but that’s still one more level of removal from a human subject. And reducing people to parts is hardly the only way to do this. Propagandistic media are rife with examples of subtle tweaks to presentation, physical features, lighting, and so on, that cue the audience to view some of their subjects as inhuman. Conversely, there are a variety of ways that still images can convey characterization and narrative; it’s harder to find a renaissance painting that doesn’t do this to some extent, and many of them evoke responses to their characters even if one doesn’t know the story they depict. This doesn’t mean that we share a deep human relationship with Titian’s Salome or the Jesus of Michelangelo’s Last Judgment, but it’s certainly easier to see them as people, as subjects within a narrative in which they’re taking action in their capacity as humans with thoughts, feelings, etc.

I also disagree that pinup art, porn, and the like are solely about the appreciation of attractive bodies. That’s a major part of it, to be sure, perhaps even the primary one, but another of the main purposes of porn and erotic art is to bring on sexual fantasies. Unless one is literally fantasizing about doing it with a sex doll or other inanimate object (which people do, but not most people most of the time as far as I can tell), another entity is of necessity going to enter into the scenario, and that entity can be envisioned as having varying degrees of subjectivity. (This is the point at which I skillfully (possibly in bullet time) dodge the issue of whether dehumanizing sexual fantasies and perceptions of images tend to lead to dehumanizing thoughts and behavior in the rest of one’s life, and if so to what extent, on which question most the actual ethical ramifications of objectifying art hinge.) While appreciating one’s idea of a fictive being’s subjectivity is certainly distinct from appreciating the subjectivity of an actual person, it’s also distinct from perceiving a fictive or real person as having no subjectivity.

I feel like I must not be giving you enough credit here. Your statement reads to me as saying “the presentation of an image of a person cannot influence the degree to which people attribute characteristics to that image/person, including greater and lesser degrees of subjectivity and personhood.” This seems to fly in the face of history, psychology, and common sense.

In any case, we agree on one point: this is disturbing. That people can be manipulated into liking or disliking a person or group, seeing them as subjects or objects, through visual presentation, which has no necessary relationship to that person’s character or actions, is pretty horrifying.

You’re right.  Images do work in these ways.  It does make a difference how people are posed and so forth.

I was trying to compress and straightforward-ify a response to Aaron Diaz’s particular configuration of ideas, and ended up saying something that just wasn’t true, so I’m going to try to be less compressed and more explicit about it.

Concerns about objectification in media make the most sense to me when they’re in the context of a narrative.  This is because there’s a conflict between telling a story about someone (making us think about them as a person) and using the kind of images that tend to make us think of that person as a sexual object.

Some pretty clear examples of this phenomenon can be found in the work of one, um, Aaron Diaz.

As I said in the OP, I think it’s hard to carve out a space called “sexy but not objectifying.”  If you’re trying to tell a story about someone that is not about their sex life (or sex fantasy life), depicting them in a way that calls attention to how hot they are is inherently a weird and potentially distracting choice.  Because, ultimately, “how hot they are” is largely a thing about the shape of their body.

In my mind, once we start agonizing over whether a single, decontextualized visual image is or is not “too objectifying,” we’re focusing on something kind of silly, because for better or for worse real life is full of visual images of hot people.  You don’t have to be a voyeur or a pervert to get presented, in the course of your day-to-day life, with the bodies of hot people.  This is why Diaz’s concern, in particular, with whether the pin-up subject is “in charge of their sexuality” is so strange to me.  There’s no cosmic censor ensuring that real life conform to this rule, and usually it won’t.

There are times – say, at parties – where one will see a hot person whose clothing and body language indicates that they’re very deliberately trying to be hot and aware of the effect they’re having.  And then there’s just the ordinary experience of noticing that a co-worker/classmate/etc. is good-looking (and again, I’m talking about the everyday bedrock of normal sexual attraction, not pervy staring-for-too-long or anything).  Reality does not warp itself so that when you happen to find a hot acquaintance in your visual field, the image that appears on your retina is composed according to Aaron Diaz’s non-objectification criteria.

Which is to say that unless we can configure our own minds to remember that people are people even when being presented with the “wrong” kinds of images, we’re screwed (no pun intended).  Because reality is full of the “wrong” kinds of images, and they’re of real people we sometimes actually know, which makes it especially consequential.

To sum up, I think that worrying over whether individual images are objectifying, using the kind of criteria Diaz uses, is wrong-headed because the problem should be fixed earlier on, in the mind.  If we want to have less-objectifying sexual fantasies, for instance, we should become people who can do this in response to “the wrong kind” of images because in real life those kinds of images will provide much of the base material for our day-to-day sexual attractions.  Someone who can’t look at an isolated sexy picture and imagine a real person unless the pictured subject is “in charge of their sexuality” is going to have big problems living in a world that is full of hot people just going about their daily business, and not carefully attending at every waking moment to the way they appear to others.

I recognize that the model I’ve presented in this post is overly simplistic.  A lot of people complain about objectification in, say, TV ads, which either have no narratives or very simple narratives that aren’t supposed to have well-developed characters.  The model above would say that this is nonsense because the ads are just images.  But I don’t really think these complaints are nonsense.  The reason is that these ads are part of a overall culture that is full of very sexualized images, which overall tends to send the signal that “female bodies are generators of sex fantasies, not things that contain people.”  But in my mind that’s a problem that has to do with over-saturation with sexy images, and can’t really be solved by making “better” sexy images; making the pictured woman “in control of her sexuality” reminds you that she has a mind but not in a way that interferes much with the generation of fantasies.  (This point was made well in Mary Cagle’s comic from yesterday – “look at me because I say so.”  As if that changes the resulting boner so much.)

As a final note, it’s worth keeping in mind the pictures that Diaz is talking about (NSFW link obviously) as models of good pin-ups.  To be honest I’m not really sure where the divide is between this and a lot of pin-up art; if anything the gaze in, say, the 4th picture is a lot more “voyeuristic” than, say, a standard “I am looking straight at the viewer with bedroom eyes” pose.  So this is an even weirder conversation for that reason – even if there should be a “right kind” of sexy picture I have a hard time believing that this is it.

The whole thing, to be honest, feels like Diaz drawing what turns him on and then mouthing recombined feminist tropes as a apologia/justification for it, without really thinking about what he’s saying.  As many people have said recently, Diaz would come off a lot better if he just came out and said “yeah, I’m drawing stuff I think is hot, DC is full of sexy poses because sexy poses are fun” rather than doing this whole holier-than-thou thing.

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slatestarscratchpad:

[text]

Okay, I think we’re again coming up against basic differences in personal life approach here.  If I thought I’d successfully conveyed those differences last time, I might just say at this point “well, there’s no further we can go.”  However, I think I haven’t really conveyed my side of the divide well, so I’m going to give it another try and see what I think.

When I speak of “going with my gut,” what I’m mostly talking about – personally – is trusting people who seem to have the most direct experience in a situation over sufficiently shaky science about that situation.  I think “going with your gut” was a bad way to put this, because it suggests that I’m just trusting my own intuitions (which come from god knows where), when what I’m really talking about is trusting anecdotal but otherwise solid evidence over unanalyzed or poorly analyzed data.

Let me unpack that a bit.  First of all, I think a background fact that needs to be established here is that all of the stuff we’re talking about here involves determining the actions we take towards other people, or at the very least the judgments we internally make of other people (which, if we don’t want to kid ourselves here, are hard to entirely disentangle from actions).  I’m taking it as a given – and I don’t imagine you’ll disagree – that that’s the reason you’re specifically interested in stuff like IQ.

If you just want to understand everything as part of Science For Science’s Sake, that’s cool, but there is more understanding of the natural world out there than you could possibly take in in a lifetime, much of it more solidly grounded and abstractly/theoretically cool than IQ science.  You could happily spend your days increasing your knowledge by reading about stellar evolution, or crystallography, or each of the individually named and relatively well-understood 959 cells of Caenorhabditis elegans.  (A lot of this involves hard math, but there are innumerable popular expositions at every level of intermediate math knowledge.)  The reason IQ, and the social sciences more broadly, are of particular interest here is that they might guide your understanding of the human world you encounter every day.

Okay, now onto the second point.  A broad principle that I live my life by, which has gotten more and more strongly fixed in my mind the more I learn about science and academia, is: strongly discount everything by its epistemic distance from you.  My life in science academia has been a long, slow process of naivete-loss as I gradually learn just how many technically unsatisfied assumptions, ugly ad hoc tricks, bad methods used simply because the person didn’t know better, and so forth are used even in the “hardest” science.  This gets really frightening when you combine it with the conjunction fallacy: most of our scientific conclusions involve chaining together a lot of assumptions or approximations that are individually shaky to some extent, and our minds have a built-in bug that prevents us from realizing just how badly this can break the conclusions!

One of the things that training in mathematical physics will do to you is break you of the habit of thinking that getting your assumptions approximately right will lead to an approximately right answer.  Some of the most famous phenomena in physics – boundary layers, chaotic dynamics – are phenomena remarkable for how untrue this is: if you make a naive assumption of the kind that often works in other cases, your answer is not just wrong, but complete garbage, capturing none of the actual phenomenon!

All of the above goes for statistical science as well: as in most of applied mathematics, you have a suite of simple methods that have been proven to work only in ideal cases, and a bunch of people who know only those methods.  Sometimes there are better methods out there, and people simply don’t know they exist (Shalizi’s site is full of a lot of wonderful ranting about this kind of thing, and not nearly all of it is about IQ, either).  And my physicist-intuition makes me very wary of the idea that the standard methods will not yield garbage when applied outside of their technical domain of relevance.

Okay, where am I going with all this?  Well, my mind has collected stuff like the above into the principle I stated earlier, about epistemic distance.  Stuff that we only “know” given a lot of intellectual manipulation, particularly mathematical manipulation, is epistemically “far away.”  I am vary wary of treating it on an equal footing with stuff I know more directly, like “I have two hands,” or various things that friends who I trust have told me about their lives.

I think that some significant damage has been done by the popularization of the statistical maxim that “data” is superior to “anecdotes.”  Under ideal conditions – with all the assumptions of your statistical methods satisfied (they usually aren’t!) – this is a fundamentally good and important idea.  You can’t learn the statistics of a whole population from a few examples members, and there’s no way those example members can overcome that barrier by being especially “vivid” or “convincing” (or anything else).

However, it is often true (IMO) that you can’t learn the statistics of a population from actual data either.  This is because the real world is a harsh place where none of the hypotheses of our theorems are satisfied and we are constantly tripping over ourselves mis-analyzing things and then correcting other people’s mis-analyses ad infinitum/nauseam.

The advantage of anecdotes in this environment is twofold.  First, they are epistemically close.  A story told to me by a friend might “disappear” if I later learn that the friend is untrustworthy, but it isn’t in danger of disappearing because some esoteric assumption turned out to be importantly false (something that is constantly happening to “known” results in science).  The story is a real thing I heard, with my own fairly reliable ears (or eyes on the internet), and is not getting to me across a shaky tower of esoterica.

Second, and perhaps more important, anecdotes are directly relevant to the subset of the population my actions directly affect.  (On one level this sounds almost too obvious to mention, but if you’ve been thinking in abstractions a lot it can start to seem almost magical.)  The story told by my friend is a story about my friend, who is not a random selection from a giant population, but one of the fairly few people with whom I have any kind of significant, impactful daily interaction.  (And as you’ve pointed out in your own posts, the subset of people I personally interact with is in no way a representative sample of most broader populations.)

There are certain cases, like voting, in which one has impactful interactions on broader groups, but even in those cases (unless you’re in a direct democracy) you’re usually just choosing other people to think about the issues for you.  Otherwise, you’ve got the day-to-day business of interacting with people, in which you get two streams of information: the epistemically distant, population-general, easily disable-able information coming from social science, and the epistemically close, specific-to-the-relevant-sample, relatively robust information coming from people you know.  The former is “statistical” and the latter is “anecdotal,” but this shouldn’t scare us away from the latter just by itself.

Here’s a concrete example.  How do I get my opinions about the role of sexism in academic science?  Well, on the one hand, I have looked a bit into the science and statistics of the issue, which seems to me to be full of very smart experts building their own personal towers of esoteric assumption and then doing Glymour-style, probably politically motivated takedowns of each other’s towers.  I’ve watched the Pinker-Spelke debate in which Pinker talks about IQ variance and Spelke talks about child development and it all ends up seeming like a very complicated thing which these experts are trying to make inroads into by building their own, incompatible jenga towers of assumption.  Both Pinker and Spelke’s views are epistemically distant from me, they both know more about the data than I probably ever will, and they don’t even agree with one another!

On the other hand, you have stories like the following.  A student who I’ll call A. was probably the most talented physics major I knew in college.  I know this partly because she asked good questions in class, but also because I graded her work for two semesters (she was one year younger than me), and her work was unequivocally the best in the class, to the point that I would grade her problem sets first to get a sense of what the problem set was like before I’d go on to grade the sets of anyone who was likely to actually do anything stupid.  (Her reasoning was also individual enough that it was clearly her work, unlike another student in the same class who the other grader and I eventually exposed as a cheater copying from the solution manual.)

A. decided not to go to grad school after graduating – not because of any lack of talent – and created a blog about female physics majors who decided not to go on in the field.  I don’t remember her opinions about this in detail (and the blog is now defunct), but the impression I got was that she and her interlocutors on the blog felt dissatisfied with the culture of academic physics, in a way that had to do with gender, but reflected neither lack of talent nor lack of interest.

Now, that is an anecdote!  It is just one person!  But it is the kind of story I have personally heard from women in science a number of times, and all those stories are epistemically close.  On the other hand, you have Pinker and Spelke espousing big, epistemically distant summaries of the data.  And the question is: when I am faced with women who talk about the culture of academic physics being sexist, am I going to distrust them because I’ve heard Steven Pinker’s argument on the subject, or am I going to trust them?  And the answer is that I’m going to trust them: because they’re epistemically close, and the theories are epistemically distant, and the theorists don’t even agree, and anyway the women I’m talking to here are themselves, not randomly selected elements from a population.  (To make the point here explicit: there is little functional difference between believing “sexism affects all/most women in this way” and “sexism affects all/most of the women I happen to meet in this way,” because I generally don’t have impactful effects on people I don’t meet.)

So, to connect things up to your actual post (finally!), I’m just not that concerned with the idea that cultures like academic physics or math are being unfairly maligned for being racist and sexist, because I’m told that they are by the people I trust most to know, and meanwhile the only signal I get from The Science is [zzzzz … . ???? … assuming X Y and Z you can sort of conclude P … someone will make their career in 5-20 years by assuming Y and Z but not X and concluding ~P … ????? … noise … complexity … zzzzzzzzz].  I’m a straight white male in an applied math Ph.D. program so maybe you’d expect me to feel hurt by these claims more than I am, but I’m … not?  The pain of knowing that some people hate me is honestly not that bad; everyone is hated by some people, and in some cases it’s much worse than what I have to deal with.  Or so people I trust tell me, anyway.  And they’re epistemically close to me.  So.

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slatestarscratchpad:

“One of them is the same old issue about the validity of correlation-based IQ research.  In your example, we can do controlled experiments.  With people, we often can’t, and are relegated to doing statistics techniques on uncontrolled demographic data.

There are better and worse ways to do this.  That Glymour article I linked to earlier today discusses this issue, the upshot being that the ways Murray and Herrnstein did it in The Bell Curve was very wrong, and an object lesson in what is wrong with statistical practice in social science today.  Of course, Glymour is speaking against the psychometric mainstream here, and so he is certainly outnumbered by people with impressive credentials, but his argument makes sense to me.”



Darnit, we stopped agreeing about everything substantial!

[snip]

It seems like we’re now getting to the point where we’re really disagreeing on some pretty fundamental issues – not even about IQ, but about science and how to live one’s life.

If I could phrase the central gist of your reply in my own words, it’d be something like

"What we have are imperfect but interesting bits of scientific data, and if we choose to ignore these because they’re imperfect, we’re effectively deciding to go with our existing prejudices, or with the status quo.  This may have socially regressive consequences, as [you say] it does in college admissions.”

One attitude I could possibly have toward this idea is: “well, yeah, going with the status quo is bad and should be avoided if we have information that is any good at all, but our IQ information is actually not even ‘any good.’  [insert thousands of words poking holes in IQ research in an attempt to convince you of this]”

That isn’t what I really think, though!  My actual attitude is “the status quo isn’t so bad!  Existing, non-scientific ideas have their own virtues, such as being stable over time in a way that makes life easier to live, being based in some and perhaps many cases on a pretty good analysis of the data, and often being bounded in how much harm they can cause (they haven’t yet gotten us into any mess worse than the one we’re in, after all).”

(In some senses of the term, I guess I’m a conservative.)

For clarity, I’ll first describe this attitude in the now-familiar world of pseudo-speedometers.  As I stipulated way back when, the pseudo-speedometers only look at rate of footfalls.  This works pretty well for most humans, and works abysmally for creatures with stride lengths very different from the average human: for instance, they say that horses go way more slowly than they clearly do.

Now, one possible response to this is “wow, look at this new, exciting, counter-intuitive result from the new science of pseudo-speedometry!  Sure, it upends what seems obvious about horses, but even imperfect scientific information is better than mere unscientific intuition!  I’m going to sell my horse and go around talking about how we as a society use horses more than The Latest Research tells us we should.”

Another possible response is “but just look at a horse.  It moves really fast!  I’m going to keep riding my horse; my intuition tells me it’ll get me places fast, The Latest Research be damned.”

Then, a year later, someone makes a new version of the pseudo-speedometer with some ad hoc correction for horses, and notes that this new version can be used to make better predictions, such as the correct prediction that a horse really will get you places faster.  New papers are published and reported on with great excitement.

So now all of the advocates of The Latest Research read this stuff, change their tune entirely, start riding horses again.  Meanwhile, the other character in this story was riding their horse the whole time.  They had a stabler, simpler life – they weren’t being jerked around by the mercurial whims of The Latest Research.  This would have been a nice perk of their strategy even if they had been wrong, but as it turned out they weren’t.

Note that status quo-using character here could concede that pseudo-speedometry has some uses, even if they never let it override their intuitions.  In this character’s view, pseudo-speedometry is just a standardized (but imperfect) version of the intuitive practice of having a person look at something and asking them if it’s going fast.  In being standardized and numerical, pseudo-speedometry is nice; it might be useful for comparing different horses, for instance.  (One would of course make sure it’s doing what one wants by watching the horses oneself and comparing.)  On the other hand, if it tells you a horse goes no faster than a human, you don’t have to believe it.

The situation described above strikes me as pretty similar to the situation in various areas of human science – say, the field of nutrition science.  It seems to me that The Latest Research is constantly going back and forth on which sorts of food are horrible for you and which aren’t, and that even at any given time, there’s less a consensus than a heated controversy between several different factions.

One could let oneself be yanked around by all this, reasoning that some suitable average of The Latest Research at any given time is simply the best information we have, imperfect as it is.  But the alternative, the status quo, is not informationless!  It consists of things like “eating what you like best” and “going with your body’s signals” and “eating what’s worked for your ancestors (whose genes you share).”  These signals are always here, stably and reliably emitting their nontrivial share of information, while The Latest Research jerks back and forth on the basis of esoteric shifts in statistical methods and the like.

Is it worth your while to spend hours brushing up on statistics and methodology and reading abstruse academic disputes so you can determine whether the latest Science Diet is a good thing or not?  The alternative isn’t some reasonless, random, arbitrarily risky void; the alternative is “just eating a normal diet” (whatever that happens to mean to you), which is not so bad.

Now that brings us to another point, which is that it matters who the “we” is in questions like “how much should we care about The Latest Research?”  You give the example of college admissions.  If I were someone who actually worked in (a relevant aspect of) college admissions, I would consider it my responsibility to read up on all the relevant science and try to come to some conclusion about it.

This is the equivalent of having some sort of transportation policy statistics job in the pseudo-speedometry world.  You wouldn’t want to just say “horses aren’t slower than people, that’s absurd!” because any old fool can say that; that isn’t what they pay you for.  You would want to dive into the arguments for and against the “horses are actually slow” contention and come out with an informed view.  If the counter-intuitive result is actually right, you’d want to know, because a lot is riding on it.

But if you’re just a regular person, you don't have to do this.  That’s a lot of hard work that intuition suggests will give sparse returns.  (Cf. gwern’s comments on whether it’s really worth it for a non-expert to read up on the IQ and race debate.)  Sure, you might be required to make political decisions relevant to transportation policy, such as voting.  But given an appropriate government structure, you can just elect someone who strikes you as smart (the person in the previous paragraph) to do the thinking for you.

In the particular case of college admissions, for instance, my impression is that the predictive value of the SAT is a hot topic of debate, not a settled issue.  (This is relative to high school grades, mostly – not interviews and extracurriculars.)  My impression of the topic at this point is formed of stuff like “I read a New Yorker article ages ago which said the SAT was less predictive than high school grades but the SAT II was more predictive among those who take it” and “Scott seems to think the SAT is very predictive” and “my friend Isaac who works in SAT prep says the SAT isn’t predictive at all” and “when I do a Google Scholar search for this I get a bunch of conflicting opinions, some of which are produced by the College Board itself, which is another issue I’d have to disentangle.”

I’m sure glad it’s not my job to work this stuff out!  As it is, extracting anything reliable from the debate seems difficult enough that I’m pretty happy going with my intuitions, as a layman.

There’s a related point here, which is that I think exposing yourself to many low-quality arguments can be dangerous in itself, because it can transform your relatively benign initial position – agnosticism or status quo – into something else simply by barraging your mind with the sense that you should be nudging your view a little bit towards something, until eventually (because the human mind doesn’t have very many gradations of belief) you hit the wall and become a believer.  I talk about this here.  This is one of my longstanding issues with Less Wrong rationalism in practice – it seems to value updating in the direction of a very noisy signal rather than staying with your pre-existing biases, and this seems to lead people astray.  If the smallest update I can make is still a pretty big jump in belief, and the Latest Research sucks, I’d rather not update at all in the direction of the Latest Research.  Sorry for being irrational!

I think I’ve made the points I wanted to make (probably in more space than they needed).  Now I can imagine that you may be incredulous about all this.  You may be thinking you’ve forced me – by pressing me to justify my anti-IQ stance – into a conservative, traditionalist position that I would never espouse in general.  I mean, doesn’t this same view endorse people like racists who look at the famous evidence about race not correlating with genetic categories and say, “well, whatever, I’ll still go with my gut”?

Yes, it does, and I’m OK with that.  Because I don’t think The Latest Research is a good post on which to pin your anti-racist opinions (or much else).  This is an argument I’ve heard a lot (I think I first saw it in Pinker’s The Blank Slate): if you use, say, the Latest Research on “gay genes” to make a “scientific case” against homophobia, what if that research gets overturned?  Were the homophobes then right all along?  Surely not; presumably “homosexuality is genetic” wasn’t your real reason for opposing homophobia anyway.  (And it shouldn’t be.)  More generally, I think many of my opinions are based on a wealth of experience and non-scientific knowledge stronger than the Latest Research.  My advice for the hypothetical racist here is not “don’t go with your gut,” but “get a better gut.”  Make some friends who aren’t white and see how your intuition evolves in response; this is a much more reliable and time/energy-efficient source of interesting and relevant information than delving into the extremely noisy and confusing signal that is “the science of race.”  I’m not making a blanket endorsement of tradition, but tradition is only one source of intuition, and I am saying that intuition is better than The Latest Research, a lot of the time.

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slatestarscratchpad:

nostalgebraist:

slatestarscratchpad:

nostalgebraist:

[lots of text]

A natural reply at this point would be: “but doesn’t the same objection hold for virtually all of quantitative social science, which after all is based heavily on correlations and has a dearth of super-successful causal theories of the type found in physics and some parts of biology?”

And the answer would be “yes!”  That is a bullet I bite, and a reason that I am becoming more and more skeptical of all social science when it tries to be predictive.

I still don’t think our different is substantive.

[snip]

[snop]

Okay, I agree we agree on everything substantive and are disagreeing about semantics. And if I rounded you off to the position of bing and some of the other people in this debate who are saying IQ isn’t real, then I apologize for the misunderstanding and plead me being mind-killed.

You are a mathematician and I am a psychiatrist, and so when we say “This concept is scientifically rigorous!” we have very different standards we are holding things to.

But I am still not sure we are 100% on the same page.

When I read your condemnation of SQmetrics as “a sort of goofy numericalized version of common sense, not science” my immediate response is “Science is EXACTLY a goofy numericalized version of common sense!”

Suppose there was a big debate over whether horses were faster or slower than cars, and for some reason (maybe cars spook horses and they run off) we can’t just race them.

Philosophers weigh in on both sides of the debate. Some say Nature is more perfect than Artifice, so horses must be faster. Others say the circle is the most perfect shape, so wheels must outperform legs.

A scientist armed with one of the SQ pseudo-speedometers goes and measures 100 cars and 100 horses, does the appropriate statistics, and concludes with the appropriate confidence level that cars are faster than horses.

This seems like an absolutely archetypal example of science.

SQMetrics might not be a science per se, but it seems like “speed research”, which investigates things like whether horses are faster than cars - is a science, and is entirely dependent upon SQMetrics.

(it might be even more of a science if it were able to develop complex hypotheses by, for example, tweaking each part of a car’s engine, measuring the results, and seeing which ones caused speed to increase or decrease)

Likewise, whether or not IQ-test-making is a science, it seems clear to me that intelligence research - the people who say things like “Children exposed to lead end up less intelligent as measured in IQ than other children” - is a science, and is (almost) entirely dependent upon IQ.

In that sense, I don’t expect IQ-test-making to be a science per se, in the sense of “something that does deep investigations into the causal structure of the universe”, I expect it to be an “engineering discipline” that builds instruments for intelligence research (if I wanted to push the semantic point, I’d say “IQ research”).

Possibly the analogy is IQMetrics : intelligence research :: telescope-making :: astronomy ?

I think there are two remaining disagreements.

One of them is the same old issue about the validity of correlation-based IQ research.  In your example, we can do controlled experiments.  With people, we often can’t, and are relegated to doing statistics techniques on uncontrolled demographic data.

There are better and worse ways to do this.  That Glymour article I linked to earlier today discusses this issue, the upshot being that the ways Murray and Herrnstein did it in The Bell Curve was very wrong, and an object lesson in what is wrong with statistical practice in social science today.  Of course, Glymour is speaking against the psychometric mainstream here, and so he is certainly outnumbered by people with impressive credentials, but his argument makes sense to me.

I don’t object to the “intelligence research” you describe, but I am not convinced it is actually being done.

The second disagreement has to do with the other end of the causal structure: not what IQ causes, but what causes it.  Everything in my personal experience, along with my very amateur knowledge of brain science, suggests that intelligence really shouldn’t be a one-dimensional thing.  I’ve met lots of people (including myself) who are smart in some ways but dumb in others; this is so common that boiling everything down to one number feels like missing a lot of the variability, and thus missing out on a lot of the socially beneficial possibilities of “intelligence research.”  (We’d like to know what people are actually good at, and why, not just some sort of giant average over many different skills, some of which may be irrelevant in any given vocation.)

(Imagine if every job, from carpenter to kindergarten teacher to airline pilot, required you to take the same generic “mental ability to have a job test” to help determine your qualifications.  Wouldn’t that be silly, given our intuitions about how different jobs take different skills?  But that is exactly what IQ and its correlations to job performance are!  That is: perhaps counterintuitively strong, but not the whole picture, and perverse to focus on to the exclusion of everything else in that picture.)

This is a second thing the speed analogy doesn’t capture, because speed – the real thing – is pretty clearly one-dimensional.

So, to sum up, we have a multi-dimensional phenomenon being reduced to one number, losing important information in the process, then having its causal role in society assessed via dubious statistical techniques rather than controlled experiment, while better statistical techniques are available.  Is this “science” / “real science” / “good science” / etc.?  Well, that’s semantics.  What it is is very suboptimal science.

Now, here is where rhetoric comes in.  No matter how good or bad “intelligence research” is, a substantial fraction of the general public is going to see it as revealed wisdom, as What The Science Says About Intelligence.  My (personal, anecdotal) experience has been that beliefs of this kind generally have negative effects on people, e.g. because they cause people to think of themselves as inherently worthless (if their Official Science Smartness Number is too low), or inherently superior to the common sheeple (if their if their Official Science Smartness Number is too high), or inherently freakish (if their Official Science Smartness Number is incalculable because their subscores are too far apart).  I’m not even going to get into the psychological impact of claimed race and gender differences in Official Science Smartness Numbers, but I’m sure you can imagine the paragraphs I might write about them.

People already fuck themselves up enough with intelligence-related rhetoric, and IMO it’s a net negative if this process is enabled by Official Science Smartness Numbers.  (My dad once tried to win an emotionally fraught argument with me by claiming that he had to be right, because his IQ was much higher than mine.  This was fallacious for several reasons – one being that he was averaging two subscores 30 points apart – but I still wish he hadn’t had the number, which seemed to play an important role that evening in the mental dynamics that helped him ignore everything I was saying.)

Now of course this negative could be counteracted by a positive if the research were sufficiently good, if it helped society, or perhaps even helped individuals make decisions.  I am not convinced it does this.  It is, as I said, very suboptimal science – exactly which words you use to describe this kind of science is a matter of semantics and rhetoric, but suffice it to say that because of the issues I mentioned in the first half of this post, I personally treat IQ research by default as though it is meaningless.  Good, epistemically careful science is already fraught with pitfalls; science that is sufficiently suboptimal goes in my mental “ignore” box.  Meanwhile, it leads the general public to play all sorts of pointless and painful games, with each other and themselves, involving their Official Science Smartness Numbers.

Which is why I’m anti-IQ: I wish there was either a very good science of intelligence or no science of intelligence, and IQ-based intelligence research is neither.

There is an additional frustration here: much of the pro-IQ rhetoric I see focuses around the idea that anti-IQ sentiments are merely politically based slights at a solid scientific research program, and I suspect that this is part of the reason the scientific research program is so suboptimal: it has a built-in defense against criticism, one which its critics unfortunately play into.  (I cringed when I saw Glymour, at the end of a technical and insightful statistics article about The Bell Curve, swerve off into a rant about national school funding and other things he believes are or aren’t Right For America.)  It can be very hard to establish in these discussions that you are not merely engaging in political motivated reasoning – and thus a very suboptimal field of science stays very suboptimal!  Argh!

(via slatestarscratchpad)

hot-gay-rationalist:

nostalgebraist:

hot-gay-rationalist:

nostalgebraist:

raginrayguns:

nostalgebraist:

“Where do Bayesians get their numbers from anyway,” installment (n+1)

[cut cut]

[snup]

[snop]

[snip]

tl;dr my subjective feelings about very inferentially distant propositions don’t feel like subjective plausibilities, and I get the sense that this is true for most people.  The way Bayesians quote numbers seems strange to many people, not just because it is unfamiliar, but because it seems to conflate the “sure uncertainty” one has about a fair coin with the “unsure uncertainty” one has about inferentially distant events.

About the difference in feeling, that’s indeed true, and in fact Jaynes has a whole chapter about this subjective difference and I wrote a post about it.

But I’m fairly certain that I wouldn’t say 50% to a question like that, because… well, I don’t know, full uncertainty doesn’t feel like “it could go either way” to me? And that’s part of the thing in the link, probabilities aren’t “brute numbers,” they have distributions. I’m also uncertain about my uncertainty, and if someone asked me that, I’d probably say something like “40% with a very very very wide tail.”

(By the way, I did read the whole thing, I just wanted to save space.)

It seems like you’re one of “nature’s plausibilists” — someone whose mind just naturally assigns a subjective plausibility to every proposition.  Which is pretty cool, don’t get me wrong, but my hunch is that this is not a common trait.  And the ultimate justifications for plausibilism are intuition-based, as ultimate justifications in philosophy tend to be.

Hmmm… yeah maybe. Though I don’t feel like those justifications are really intuition based, they’re more like “what I’d want to reason like”? I don’t know, maybe I’m projecting, or I’m just happy to have found my qualia represented in Bayesianism, but the Cox Axioms look like what I would want to reason like, even if I didn’t in fact reason like that - and of course I don’t really reason like that, I’m a biased human, and my reasoning deviates predictably from perfect Bayes, but it still looks like I’d want to be Bayesian and that whenever I reason in a way that’s inconsistent with that I’d feel bad about it. I do feel bad about it.

(Last point: I think there’s an even more fundamental state of uncertainty one can have, which is being uncertain about whether a proposition even describes a state of the territory at all.  For instance, if you asked me whether I thought Max Tegmark’s “Mathematical Universe Hypothesis” was true, I would feel a fundamental uncertainty caused in part by the fact that I’m not even sure yet what it would mean for it to be “true,” or whether that’s a meaningful question.  That is, uncertainty about whether or not a proposition is vacuous is a second kind of uncertainty that I don’t think can be captured well with plausibilities.  I have no idea if the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis is “plausible”; I don’t even know if it can be true or false, and will have to do more thinking to resolve that question.)

Well, here I think we sort of shrug and just go with logic? In logic, a meaningless sentence is always false (has no model, describes no possible world), so I think you can give that some form of probability. Maybe.

Though that’s in fact an Open Problem in FAI, in the same order of “how to reason about hypercomputers?” So this is a part where I confess complete epistemic confusion and say that this is an unsolved problem and that it may well be the point where Bayesianism unravels completely and we find out that we need some othermore universal form of reasoning to be our unattainable golden standard.

But I don’t know that Bayesianism can’t solve that, and I don’t know that simply giving potentially-meaningless propositions a probability will give me headaches. I haven’t yet read this paper but maybe there’s some potential stuff there.

I understand that such an A_p distribution can be constructed, and I guess then what I’d say is “for most futurological and other highly speculative propositions, my A_p distribution is nearly uniform.”

You can then take the first moment of all these uniform distributions and get 0.5 out and play games with the 0.5s, but this will at best just be a way of reflecting that I have no clue about the answers to any of these questions.  Saying “I have a subjective plausibility and it corresponds to probability 0.5” seems misleading; I don’t have a subjective plausibility.

Anyway, if we try to represent this state with uniform A_p distributions, doesn’t that run into the conjunction problem I mentioned?  "P and Q" should be (in the general case) less likely than P or Q alone, but supposing any of these are sufficiently far from my experience, I simply feel in a state of complete uncertainty about them.  So if you first asked me about “P and Q” I would give you “0.5” or “A_p is uniform” or whatever, but I would also have said that if you had presented me with P or Q alone.  (Taken literally, this set of judgments would seem to imply that all the events I’m totally uncertain about are really the same event, i.e. imply each other with probability 1, which is something I certainly don’t believe!)

For the above reason the A_p formalism seems like an awkward way to express the state of really total uncertainty I feel about many things; it still assumes my states of total uncertainty can play by the rules of probability when they can’t.  I don’t feel like they should, either – that would imply more knowledge than I really have, viz. some sense of which events are relatively big in the probability space and which are relatively small (to resolve the conjunction issue).

I guess what I’m looking for here is the mental state “more research is needed” – like the mental state I was in when I first learned about the “P=NP?” question but before I had learned that most people thought P != NP, and knew that if I really wanted to have a subjective sense of how plausible P=NP was, I should look up what experts thought about it.  I don’t think this can be captured by A_p because of the conjunction problem I mentioned, though maybe I’ve gotten that wrong.

(via hot-queer-rationalist-deactivat)

good lord what has gotten into me tonight

In response to these posts a bunch of you mentioned some things you considered good points of Act 6.  Some of them are good points in my very own opinion that I just forgot about, and some of them aren’t; I don’t wanna do a point-by-point response because I don’t have much to say about a lot of it.  There are two things I do want to talk about, though.

(Point 1 is not really very interesting and point 2 is the real purpose of this post, FYI)

1: Several people mentioned Caliborn.  I do like one aspect of Caliborn, which is that he uses the English language really awkwardly and I love it when Hussie does that thing.  (It’s part of why I like Tavros so much.)  Since there were already characters in the story who did that, it’s hard to count it too much as a point in Caliborn’s favor specifically, but it is one.

Other than that, though, Caliborn just doesn’t do that much for me – he’s not very effective as a villain (presumably on purpose, but it’s still boring), and he feels like a retread of characteristics (childish aggressiveness, sexual fetishism, etc.) that had already been present, and more interestingly dealt with, in some of the troll characters.

Also, there’s something about Caliborn that kinda needles me personally in that he feels like an invocation of the “childish misogynists are mentally ill and vice versa” trope – in particular, the circle drawing scene with the whole “I can’t do things normal people do but I find my own special ways of getting them done away” seemed like a weirdly overt and specific, and otherwise pointless (?), invocation of that trope.  Insofar as all Homestuck characters are references to broad recognizable “types,” I didn’t like that particular type appearing in the story the way it did.

2: Drunk Rose.  Drunk Rose bothered me for the same reason almost all of the meteor stuff bothered me, which is a broader problem I have with A6.  (I’m pretty sure I talked about this before, back when this was a Homestuck blog, but that was a very long time ago.)

The problem is this: A6 takes a bunch of stuff that was supposed to be stylized in A1-5, and forces you to interpret it as though it literally happened.  But the literal story that results isn’t as good as the original, stylized story.

Say you’re reading a metered poem that tells a story and has dialogue.  (Say it’s in a meter that doesn’t naturally fit dialogue, like a poem in English that’s not iambic.)  You can achieve a certain state of disbelief suspension where, on the one hand, you treat all of the words on the page as though they’re really being said, and on the other hand you don’t ask yourself questions like “how do the characters feel about talking so weirdly?”  You accept it as a stylistic choice, and like all stylistic choices, it’s in this weird but acceptable space between “actually happening” and “not actually happening.”

Then suppose there is a prose sequel to this poem where it is revealed/retconned that the characters used to speak in verse and now they don’t, because they had some strange mental condition that made them speak in verse, which had now been cured.  This would be frustrating in retrospect, in part because it would raise all sorts of awkward questions, like “did the characters in the original spend a lot of time thinking ‘gee isn’t this disease annoying’ while they were belting out hexameters?”  But also because, in a sense, it would mess up the poetry of the original – bring it down to earth.  What was once a deviation from pure realism for the sake of heightened emotion or grandeur or showmanship or distillation of archetypes or any of that other stuff that art’s all about is now simply something that “really happened.”  Those people weren’t speaking in verse because that was the appropriate way to depict this particular story; they were just doing it because they were afflicted with Dactylic Hexametritis.

(Andrew Rilstone has written a lot about this kind of thing, e.g. in this post about the Star Wars prequels.)

A lot of Homestuck is highly stylized.  It’s not just that it’s “silly” or “unrealistic”; there are plenty of stories that are unrealistic and simply bad as a result.  Homestuck is, in large part, “unrealistic” in careful, self-consistent ways that let you suspend your disbelief the way you could with a narrative poem, so that you can take these characters very seriously if you wish, even though they are transparently behaving in ways no human possibly could/would.

The chatlogs, for instance, don’t sound like “real” chatlogs – people never make typos, never talk past/around each other (something that is ubiquitous in real online chat), and adhere unfailingly to “typing quirks” so tedious to actually type that the author soon resorted to a text-converting script to apply them for him.  The very first John-Dave pesterlog is, IIRC, an edited transcript of an actual chat between Hussie and a friend, and as a result it reads very strangely in retrospect – it is very much unlike a proper “Homestuck pesterlog,” which is a established form distinct from the way real online chat sounds.

Likewise, and more relevantly, the characters’ ages in A1-5 can never be taken as literal rather than stylistic.  Hussie once said on Formspring that the characters’ status as 13-year-olds was like Calvin’s status as a 6-year-old in Calvin and Hobbes: relevant only when it needs to be.  Calvin frequently behaves in ways that no 6-year-old ever would, but is “6 years old” in a recognizable-but-stylized, consistent way that lets us read C&H without being constantly jarred.  The characters of A1-5 are “13 years old” in the same way; completely unbelievable as literal depictions of 13-year-olds, but coherent as stylized fictional beings who happen to be 13 years old.

There is more stylization than that, too.  For teenagers, the humans of Acts 1 to 4 are remarkably free of interpersonal drama, and respond to apocalyptic events and frightening challenges with a stoicism that would be unbelievable even in human adults.  Homestuck was a virtually “non-dramatic” work of fiction before Act 5 – a stylistic choice, like a verse form or a visual art style.  In Act 5, drama was very suddenly and forcefully added to the story in a manner consistent with the stylization of A1-4: the story moved to a different planet entirely and introduced a new set of characters with their own, new visual and textual styles – characters who were essentially drama incarnate.  The trolls are no more believable as depictions of real teenagers than the kids were; instead, they represented a different aspect of real teenagers.

All of this has to be taken non-literally, as a way of emphasizing or distilling certain aspects of human life, the way poetry or non-realistic art styles do.  The kids are not literally hyper-competent hyper-stoics, but characters in a deliberately light, non-dramatic story; the trolls are not literally infinitely petty little assholes with infinite patience for TyPiNg LiKe ThIs, but characters in a sub-story which is not only dramatic but about “drama,” in several senses of the word.  All of these characters are distilled archetypes or aspects.

When these two sides of the story began to interact, tensions in the style arose.  Things could have broken down at this point; that they didn’t was kind of a minor artistic miracle.  A5A2 worked, I think, because Hussie decided to roll with the sheer incongruityof the kids and the trolls rather than shoving it under the rug.  Archetypes from utterly different styles came into contact, sparks flew, and this was mined for laughs and tears.  It was like a comic putting Calvin in the same world as Katniss Everdeen, or one pitting Sailor Moon against Frank Miller’s Batman – a stylistic clash that if done with a straight face would be not only bad but almost literally incomprehensible (how can my suspension of disbelief do this while also doing that?), but can contain wonders if done with a deliberate eye to the tensions inherent in the experiment.

In A6, however, style was nearly forgotten, and everything became literal.  Don’t get me wrong: everything was still utterly silly and implausible, and Hussie continued playing with the comic format.  But the stylistic consistencies of the earlier acts fell apart.

The chatlogs were not the Chosen Verbal Form Of Homestuck; they were simply literal chatlogs by characters who now spoke.  Putting the characters in the same room as each other while having them carry on physical conversations broke one of the stylistic conventions of the original comic, which was that it was a sort of internet epic, told in a stylized version of internet communication, about a group of internet friends converging toward a potential physical meetup.  That meetup had to always be somewhere outside the frame for the frame itself to make sense; a story about the internet told in chatlogs between people who have never physically met can’t just have the characters physically meet up, proceed to have them talk in nearly the same way (through “Dialoglogs”), and act as though nothing has changed.  (Compare to Rilstone’s comments about how actually depicting the Old Republic in the Star Wars prequels screwed up the effect created by the mentions of “the Old Republic” in the original trilogy.)

It would be like Watterson writing a story arc in which Calvin grows up and “outgrows” believing in Hobbes.  How could this character be recognizably be “Calvin” when the very conceit of the comic has been broken?  Who was Calvin, anyway, and how was he making articulate social commentary about academia at an age when he believed his stuffed animal was real?

image

What is it really like to be Calvin (or Batman or Spider-Man or Rose Lalonde any other inherently stylized character), in mundane and specific detail, from morning to night, waking to sleep?  Don’t answer that.  There is no answer – or many answers, in many conceivable and equally valid fanfics.  But you can’t just literalize canon, because that gives you nonsense.  The Calvin in the “academia” strip can’t also literally be the Calvin of the strips about the real details of a 6-year-old’s life.  (Maybe Calvin is some kind of child prodigy.  But then why isn’t this ever acknowledged?)

A sequel in which Calvin “grew up,” and stuff like the above was dismissed as mere youthful pretension, would be jarring and unbelievable.  It wasn’t realistically depiction pretension – it was Bill Watterson using a stylized character as a mouthpiece for social commentary.

Similarly, some people have tried to downplay the competence and stoicism and articulacy of the A1-4 Homestuck kids by saying that these things were in some way mere facades.  Rose was “pretentious,” not a literary genius; Dave was merely trying to maintain the appearance of imperturbable wit and sangfroid.  And of course they were.  (Of course Rose was pretentious – remember the “Complacency” excerpt?)  But they still talked and acted like no real 13-year-old – like no real person – ever could.

Which is, to get to the point after far too long, why Rose getting drunk and forgetting about her date and acting in other ways like a typical teenager is so jarring to me.  It’s like Calvin “growing up,” or characters in poetry getting retconned into people with Dactylic Hexametritis.  It doesn’t feel like the characters are growing up; it feels like they’re aging backward, or aging onto a different plane of stylistic existence.  The trolls were once a symbolic distillation of online teen drama; now they’re actual teen aliens who go on awkward teen dates with actual teen humans.  The whole does not fit together coherently.  A real teenage girl might act like Rose does in the meteor scenes in A6, but “Rose Lalonde,” the stylized entity established in A1-4, would not.

Calvin grows up and goes to college; make it as realistic as you want, but what is the point?

Something significant happened when Homestuck, a comic about friends on the internet, stopped taking place “on the internet” and tried to pretend that virtually nothing had changed.

Here’s my 200-page Waiting For Godot fanfic where Godot shows up.  He turns out to be pretty cool!  He and Vladimir and Estragon have some pretty great times!  By the way, it turned out they were just talking funny because they were really tired.

Anyway, that’s 20 billion words inspired by blurds mentioning “drunk Rose” as a good point of Act 6 that barely mention “drunk Rose” at all