trump voters
I keep seeing people – of various stripes – talk about “Trump voters” in a way that seems off to me. It seems like most of left and liberal America still hasn’t fully internalized the sheer normalcy of Trump voting in 2016.
People talk about “Trump voters” like they’re this specific, unusual demographic group, like Mormons, say, or furries (to take two random and very different examples). They talk about “explaining” Trump voters (via economic factors, racism, or whatever), as though not voting for Trump is the normal, unmarked condition and “Trump voting” is a surprising deviation that needs special explanation. Like we’re talking about the risk factors for a disease. (We talk about risk factors for diabetes, not risk factors for “non-diabetes” – non-diabetes is the normal state, from which diabetes is a deviation.)
This is indeed how it feels. On a gut level, I’m still confused that anyone voted for Trump, much less enough people to win him the presidency. The pundits and comedians go on (rightly) mocking the man, reinforcing the sense that this guy is just obviously absurd, someone that no one would ever vote for without some special “risk factor” stepping in. But although that’s how it feels, the fact is that voting for Trump was absolutely normal.
Over 62 million people (nearly 63 million) voted for Trump. We like to concentrate on swing states and states won by small margins, which reinforces the sense that the people “responsible for” Trump’s win are some specific identifiable group (the inhabitants of “Trump towns,” or whatever). But if we switch the frame from “the people responsible for Trump’s win” to “the people who voted for him” – which is, after all, what the phrase “Trump voters” actually means – we don’t see specific groups in specific states.
We see about 63 million people, distributed across all 50 states and across all demographic groups – not equally, but in patterns similar to those we usually see in voters for Republican presidential candidates. It helps, here, to focus on raw numbers rather than percentages or – especially – differences in percentages. We were surprised when exit polls said that Latino support for Trump was comparable to that for Romney (28%, vs. 27% for Romney). Later analysis revealed that the true number was much lower. But even then, if we take the 15.8% number from that paper (pooled over 10 states) and multiply by Latino turnout, we get about 2 million Latinos who voted for Trump.
2 million Latinos. 31 million women. 4 and a half million Californians. Etc., etc., etc.
I’m not saying anyone should be, I don’t know, less negative about Trump voters or something. If you think something is rotten in the soul of “Trump voters,” and you mean something is rotten in the soul of those 63 million Americans, then sure, that’s a coherent position. Just, if you say “Trump voters” and you’re talking about some special sinister cohort, some group that deviated from the “normal” pattern for some specific reason, you aren’t really talking about Trump voters in the usual sense of the phrase. And you may not have truly internalized how normal it was – alas – to vote for Trump.



