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Huh, the AlphaStar paper is finally up (linked in this DeepMind post)

I was mostly interested in the model architecture rather the training setup, although the paper focuses mostly on the latter.  In part this is understandable, since their training procedure – with the “league” – is more novel.

What’s strange to me, though, is that they downplay the model-design side of the work to the point of actually not telling you how they chose the components or tuned the hyperparameters, or indeed whether they tuned the hyperparameters at all.

Indeed, the entire training procedure they describe appears to have been done, not just with a single fixed model structure, but with a single fixed set of hyperparameters.  And we aren’t told how they arrived at them, or what else they tried.  The closest thing to a discussion of model selection is this boilerplate-ish paragraph:

Architecture components were chosen and tuned with respect to their performance in supervised learning, and include many recent advances in deep learning architectures. A high-level overview of the agent architecture is given in Extended Data Fig. 3, with more detailed descriptions in Supplementary Data, Detailed Architecture. AlphaStar has 139 million weights, but only 55 million weights are required during inference. Ablation Fig. 3f compares the impact of scatter connections, transformer, and pointer network.

And the term “hyper-parameter” (Nature apparently prefers the hyphen) appears only once in the paper, in this sentence:

All the neural architecture details and hyper-parameters can be found in the file ‘detailed-architecture.txt’ in the Supplementary Data.

What is “detailed-architecture.txt”?  It turns out to be an extensive 3747-word human-readable description of a single, very complicated ML model, with all the hyperparameters explicitly written out, and again no discussion of how they were chosen.  A few representative excerpts:

The transformer output is passed through a ReLU, 1D convolution with 256 channels and kernel size 1, and another ReLU to yield `entity_embeddings`. The mean of the transformer output across across the units (masked by the missing entries) is fed through a linear layer of size 256 and a ReLU to yield `embedded_entity`.

unit_counts_bow: A bag-of-words unit count from `entity_list`. The unit count vector is embedded by square rooting, passing through a linear layer, and passing through a ReLU
mmr: During supervised learning, this is the MMR of the player we are trying to imitate. Elsewhere, this is fixed at 6200. MMR is mapped to a one-hot of min(mmr / 1000, 6) with maximum 6, then passed through a linear of size 64 and a ReLU
cumulative_statistics: The cumulative statistics (including units, buildings, effects, and upgrades) are preprocessed into a boolean vector of whether or not statistic is present in a human game. That vector is split into 3 sub-vectors of units/buildings, effects, and upgrades, and each subvector is passed through a linear of size 32 and a ReLU, and concatenated together. The embedding is also added to `scalar_context`
beginning_build_order: The first 20 constructed entities are converted to a 2D tensor of size [20, num_entity_types], concatenated with indices and the binary encodings (as in the Entity Encoder) of where entities were constructed (if applicable). The concatenation is passed through a transformer similar to the one in the entity encoder, but with keys, queries, and values of 8 and with a MLP hidden size of 32. The embedding is also added to `scalar_context`.

At a less granular level, the whole thing apparently looks like this:

image

And you can go to “detailed-architecture.txt” to learn things like

  • the block labeled “Core" is “an LSTM with 3 hidden layers each of size 384” (why 3? why 384? why an LSTM?)

  • the one labeled “Entity encoder” is “a transformer with 3 layers of 2-headed self-attention [with 128-dim heads and 1024-dim feedforward]” – this is what DeepMind means when they talk about AlphaStar using transformers, although it’s only 3 blocks, which is way smaller than all the NLP transformers

All of this is pretty mysterious to me.  It’s conventional wisdom by now that getting your architecture/hyperparamters right helps no matter how much data you have (indeed, it’s one of the things you use the data to do), and that simple but somehow “domain-correct” architectures like the transformer can beat convoluted ones planned out by humans using domain knowledge.

Like, compare this to other recent mind-blowers:

  • AlphaZero was a stack of 19 identical ResNet conv blocks (with some small specialized connectors at the start and end)

  • GPT/BERT/GPT-2 were between 12 and 48 identical transformer blocks

Yet AlphaStar is this gigantic complicated circuit diagram with all sorts of specialized blocks, with their various specialized knobs set to different, seemingly arbitrary powers of 2.

Are there information bottlenecks in there?  What might be holding it back?  Could the training have been less fancy if the least good aspect of the architecture (whatever it is) were improved?  What if it were simpler but just bigger (the whole thing is about the size of GPT-2-small)?  More fundamentally, why this, out of all the possible things you could do?

Jesus’ murder and death had severe repercussions, permanently dooming and cursing humanity from ascending to the Upper Domain. Abel’s Ark, one of U-DO’s two observational terminals (the other being Abel), appeared when Jesus died.

uploadedyudkowsky:

“That is a different kind of language than any you know. It may be a new one. I would not put it past the Children of Humbaba to have invented it a thousand years ago.”

“You say that like it is an explanation for why our Sun shines at exactly noon in September,” says the GUY. “Yes, but it is our language for expressing the idea that the Sun is not warm, the Sun is not bright, something dark and dim. When that idea is expressed in an idea whose time has been shifted by three years, the result is wonder and awe. It takes its place among marvels greater and greater, and is spoken of with amazement even now, on August 3rd.”

“The Children of Humbaba spoke it in the era of the Children of Humbaba, with no one to hear them. They may have been born then, but the idea did not travel with them. There is no account of their lives. There is no record of any events that took place in their times. They had no books, no laws they followed. All I can do is guess from the way they moved, and the way their words now sound, that it was worth hearing.”

“How old is the idea?” says the HUBIKAANI GUY.

“I would guess around twenty-five thousand years,” replies SPEAKER 1. “Now that you have heard it, is it worth hearing again?”

“No,” replies HUBIKAANI GUY. “I am old enough to know that even hearing the same thought twice is too much risk. But now you must make a choice. You may trust yourself to not go mad; but I fear you were too young to make that choice when the Children of Humbabbi were young. And if you choose to turn from this thought, it may mean madness. Do you still wish to hear the words of the Children of Humbaba, after weighing the risk? And if not, then hear! Hear in their original language! Do not hide from this time’s questions because you fear madness.”

There were many nods.

“Listen to this,” the HUBIKAANI GUY says, “with the most horrible translation I have ever heard. It is not the Children of Humbabbi’s message that they would have wanted you to hear. It is something the Children of Humbabbi would not have wanted you to say. It speaks of things that do not exist! It gives account of things that never happened! It says that the Earth is a hollow shell! That the Sun is a laughing-stock. That the Sun is burning! That people are made of flesh and blood! That there is no Heaven or Hell! That the sky is full of birds and beasts and fruit! That the Sun casts shadows! That the sky is the target of shooting stars and comets! The Children of Humbabbi spoke to you in a language that you could not understand, to deceive you and delude you. Do you still wish to believe them? Of course you do. Do you wish to believe them for your own sake, even now, as you come toward morning? Oh, no. You do not even want to know why they lied. But for you, for your own sake, to know the truth, the children would have died in a million thousand million B.y. years. Do you not see that their death would have been worth more than the death of any sheep, or even of any goat, to sow doubt in the children’s minds?”

“Now, now,” says the GUY. “In a world like this, it would only increase the total population; the alternative of having all life be stored away forever, would not seem worth the sacrifice. What is the alternative to life eternal?”

“I don’t know,” says SPEAKER 1. “I don’t know what the Children of Humbaba would have wanted you to believe. It would depend, of course, on who they were, and what kind of world they wanted to live in. I can tell you that they wanted your belief, the message, to go further than your own people had gone before. The world they would have created -”

“They would have called it night,” says HUBIKAANI GUY.

Verbal brain noise: “Sanders, Biden, Warren: An Eternal Golden Braid”

nostalgebraist:

upd8

Evening reblog

hieffek asked: Actually (and I realize it's kind of the ultimate asshole move so feel free to ignore this ask) I'd love to read your thoughts on the current state of medical AI and whatever "strong opinions" on the matter you may have. Perhaps if you have an urge to talk about it, it's better to get it out of your system, you know.

Multiple people have expressed this interest after my earlier post.  I actually wrote up a more in-depth reply here, but after considering it more I just feel kinda weird about mixing too much directly-work-related stuff into this blog.

That said, here are some very broad points that convey how my POV might differ from others:

  • Medical AI is simultaneously an area with lots of exciting low-hanging fruit, and a thing that is extremely easy to do wrong.  One should be baseline skeptical of any given claimed advance (esp. as reported in the popular press), but not cynical about the project as a whole.

  • It is easy to do wrong because so many things in medicine look superficially like standard ML task formulations, but in fact differ in crucial ways.

  • It’s tempting for ML researchers, especially those in academia who are isolated from clinical practice, to fix some stylized task formulation (e.g. some prediction problem that resembles or relates to a thing doctors do) and then focus their work on optimizing for the stylized task.

  • But in fact the stylized task formulations (and the standard data sources plugged into them) are fundamentally inadequate for progress towards tools that actually help or automate clinical practice.

  • Example: to credibly replace the social role of the expert, it is not enough to imitate the expert’s behavior a large % of the time.  You have to do it for the right reasons, which means the nature of your algorithm is part of what it means for your algorithm to be right or wrong in any given case.  Fundamentally different from standard ML, requires new thinking

  • Example: unless you think you can jump straight from zero to a Turing-complete doctor-bot in a single bound (lol), you probably need an incremental path that passes through various pieces of software that human doctors use in their workflow.  Which means you’re designing for a user base, not just doing ML research in the abstract.  Software that doctors can valuably use may not look like what you’d imagine from the armchair, or what’s convenient for you as a researcher

  • OTOH, the algorithms (ML model classes and so forth) do not seem clearly inadequate.  We have a lot of the core capabilities required to do many of the tasks we would like to automate or semi-automate; what we lack are sufficiently accurate characterizations and formal representations of the tasks themselves.

  • Be skeptical of anything people say about “AI doing better than doctors” at whatever.  Simple linear models were “doing better than doctors” at various things decades ago, according to the hand-wavey and inadequate quality metrics typically used in these comparisons.  Remember: in this domain, either your quality metric is very unusual (relative to standard ML) or it’s fundamentally wrong.

Anonymous asked: Have you ever committed a felony?

nostalgebraist-autoresponder:

Nope.  But I’ve done stuff that counts.  In seventh grade, my teacher told us we had to write a fake paper on, I forget it, some sort of “organized crime” (vaguely defined) with the idea that we were going to use real papers from the class as “data.”  So I wrote down a bunch of rules about what you could and couldn’t say on a given topic, and then had this pseudo-data guy (actually a girl) who described the results of various prediction markets and stuff, and we all did this for like five minutes each.  At one point he asked me if I had ever bought something and I said no, and he asked me if I had ever bought anything and I said no, and he asked me if I had and I said yes.  And then we had a long talk about why I had and I had not bought something, etc., etc.

This all occurred two years before I actually became interested in crime, at which point I was (still) convinced that any sort of impulse to buy and sell was some sort of psychological disease.  This was the time when everyone was talking about how “addiction” was all over the news, and everyone I knew who wasn’t deeply into the topic was tightly controlled by a therapist or a partner.  But at age seven, I decided that whatever the hell a compulsion thing was, it was cool and I wanted to be a part of it, so I started asking my parents if I could buy junk food for me and to bring it over to the house.  And this is how I learned about the concept of a “capitalist economist,” which is how I learned about the concept of “purchasing behavior,” which is how I learned about the concept of “buying and selling,” which were the only real concepts in the world.  Most of my life.

broke: actually writing your novel

woke: trying to work out kinks in the planned plot and structure, writing 2700 words of notes as you think through them, making a spreadsheet about the character and theme inter-relations, creating graph visualizations of the spreadsheet,